WEATHER DISCUSSION
As seen yesterday, a few disturbances are rounding the area of low pressure in our region. This, mixed with the daytime heating in the afternoon plus instability in the region, kicks off thunderstorm activity. Now, because temperatures are cooler, and the fact that we usually have less instability this time of year; these storms will be weak. Expect very light and isolated storms through the afternoon.
Yesterday was a good representation of what to expect again today. Up to 100 lightning strikes were recorded in the county watch area. In comparison, an average thunderstorm day in the spring/summer will bring in ~500 strikes. So, significantly weaker storms are seen this time of the year. Expect storms mostly in the Cascades and Siskiyous, the Klamath Basin and parts of Northern California. Because of where the moisture is coming from (the SW) there will also be a chance on the outskirts of the Rogue Valley. So Ashland, the Illinois Valley, and maybe even Canyonville could get a few lightning strikes. The good news is that the air mass is very saturated from the rain a few days ago, so the majority of the lightning will be near rain bases and striking land that is still a bit saturated. Fewer dry lightning strikes for today.
Speaking of the rain we had a few days ago, the front that moved through dropped enough rain in the last two days that we broke five records in four cities!
1. (September 25th) Medford hit 2.02″ breaking the old record of 0.34 set in 2001
2. (September 25th) 1.37″ fell in Roseburg, breaking past the 0.40″ set in 1986.
3. (September 25th) 1.16″ was the record in Mount Shasta City, CA, surpassing the old record of 1.07″ set in 2001.
4. (September 26th) Klamath Falls made it to 0.75″ breaking the old record of 0.30″ in 1947
5. (September 26th) The rain stayed steady enough in Mount Shasta City, CA to break another record for a second consecutive day. This time hitting 1.60″ passing 1.46″ that was recorded in 2001.
So, what this tells us is that even though the rain is no where near enough to end our extreme drought or to completely end fire season; we still got a very good amount and it will at least help us saturate soil and get a start on a long road of recovery.
Today will be the last round for the weekend. Well, the last for everyone except the Klamath Basin. A cut-off low will separate from the jetstream later this evening and move in to Northern California, and eventually Nevada. The counterclockwise flow will bring in some wrap-around showers and thunderstorms to the Eastern Klamath Basin and Modoc County on Sunday afternoon. After this happens, another weak cold front will cause some showers to move as far east as the Cascade range. These showers will be light, but will add to what we received this week. Cooler temperatures will also hang around for a while. All around, very good news.
Thanks for logging on and have a great weekend!
Meteorologist Seth Phillips
